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Holiday Online Shopping Predictions 2015

2015 Holiday Shopping Predictions

With the orange jack-o-lantern buckets and fuzzy fake spider webs of Halloween back in storage for another year, the silent clouds rolling in with their chill and eventual winter snow, it’s time to look forward to the Happy Holidays ahead. And what would the years’ conclusion be without gifts, the company of loved ones, and those enticing holiday sales?

As season’s greetings and family knock on our doors, the leading industry research companies are posting holiday online shopping predictions and forecasts of what to expect. Studies from Forrester, eMarketer, NRF, Adobe, and Deloitte have provided the following statistics forecasting the end-of-year shopping season…



  • Online sales are predicted to exceed $95 billion, which represents an 11% growth from 2014 holiday sales
  • eCommerce sales will likely amount to 15% of holiday sales
  • It’s forecasted that 40% of the growth in holiday sales overall will come from eCommerce this year



  • Retail holiday sales are projected to grow by 5.7% this year, the biggest jump since 2011
  • Total sales will likely surpass $885 billion
  • eCommerce is projected to be responsible for 9% of holiday retail sales
  • Social commerce will likely be a bigger player in holiday shopping with the “new buy” and “shop now” options on social networks
  • mCommerce is projected to account for over $60 billion dollars of total revenue
  • 68% of 2015 eCommerce sales will likely amass from holiday related retail sales
  • 45% of shoppers who use in-store pickup are expected to buy additional items while in the store


Adobe (U.S.)

  • Online sales are projected to reach a record $83 billion, an increase of 11% year over year
  • Cyber Monday sales are expected to total $3 billion
  • Black Friday online sales are expected to reach $2.7 billion
  • Adobe predicts that 76% of holiday sales will go to just 1% of specific product SKUs. Of these sales, 60% are anticipated to be electronics
  • Thanksgiving day shoppers are predicted to receive an average discount of 27%



  • Deloitte forecasts that holiday sales will increase 3.5%
  • Digitally influenced sales are predicted to affect 64% (or $434 billion) of in-store sales
  • It is anticipated that consumers will increase spending by 12.5% this season
  • Consumers will likely spend 11% more on holiday items this year with 75% of shoppers intending to spend more than last year
  • 50% of consumers said they will also be buying for themselves when shopping for others



  • Sales are expected to increase by 3.7% to a total of $630.5 billion (excludes gas, auto, and restaurant sales)
  • Holiday sales this year are forecasted to represent 19% of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion
  • NRF forecasts online sales will likely increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion
  • Retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal employees this year, on par with last year’s count of 714,000
  • Shoppers will likely spend an average of $463 on family members and $805 total this holiday season, with more than half of shoppers planning to splurge on non-gift items for themselves


Numerical discrepancies aside, we should see an uptick in consumer spending this season, whether shoppers are buying gifts for their families or taking advantage of the sales for themselves. It’s predicted that 76% of sales will go to just 1% of product SKUs, with many shoppers hunting for the same items, especially when it comes to electronics. The influence of mobile and social shopping is steadily increasing, and this year’s holiday season is no exception. As shopping technologies and tactics evolve each year, we’re looking forward to seeing an engaging transformation in the holiday buying habits of shoppers.